Ramesh Nyberg's Real Estate Blog

All right, you'll simply have to forgive the New Orleans Saints reference here. I'm still a little bouyant after the guys with the "banana on their helmets" (as Adam Sandler described them) brought home the first-ever Vince Lombardi trophy home to the Big Easy. I could go on about this, but I know you who read my blog are not necessarily all football fans, and I'm a frustrated sports writer from way back, when I would write articles about my elementary school's fifth grade softball games, for a non-existent newspaper.

So the real question I am getting here is not about point spreads or final scores, it's about home values. Are prices stabilizing for real? Can I (should I) sell now? Where is the market going? What about this "second wave of foreclosures" we are hearing about?

Last to first: The second wave, from all I've been told, is a hypothesis rendered by many real estate soothsayers, who are pointing to the number of short sales out there right now. There are still neighborhoods in South Miami-Dade that are 50-60% short sale. The stats we get from our corporate headquarters, and from the county tax assessor's office, are saying that 48% of all single family homes in Miami-Dade County are upside down on their loans. So it is feasible that there is another wave of foreclosures, but this time they are forecast to be in the $300-500,000 price range.

Two interesting findings--foreclosure filings are down 7% since last year, and prices are still dropping. Nothing terribly surprising here. But we ARE seeing prices stabilize in some neighborhoods. Last night, I met with a couple who are looking to sell in Palmetto Bay. The market analysis I did for them in Spring of 2008 didn't look much different than the one I brought the meeting. If they are going to ask less, it won't be that much less.

The "should I sell" question is a personal one, and I always answer it with a question: How much do you need--or want--to sell? If you have a dream home waiting for you in Tennessee, overlooking the mountains, with the deer walking around in your back yard, and you want to wait until you get $20,000 more for your house, then all you've really done, in my estimation, is tell me that your peaceful retirement isn't worth more than $20,000 to you.
Peace, quiet, and a healthy heart and soul can't be measured in terms of money, in my opinion. So, if that's the scenario, sell. If you are just "testing" the market, and aren't really that motivated to move, don't.
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There is much more going on, and I will tighten up the time between posts (one month is just unforgivable, and you have my apologies) so that we can all get caught up. It's time to step out to that brisk 40-degree breeze (I'm not complaining, my sister called me from Minnesota yesterday, and they've had 10 inches of snow in 36 hours), and get to class.

Next post will be in 7 days or less, and have the latest market stats, more commentary about life, and probably no football.