Ramesh Nyberg's Real Estate Blog

BOO! The reports coming out of some private research organizations are not good--they call for a 30% decrease in home values in the coming year, due to a new wave of short sales and foreclosures. The "shadow market", as it is being referred to, represents the hidden properties currently invisible to the real estate world, because they are either default mortgages waiting to go short sale, or short sales currently being absorbed by the bank in foreclosure judgements, which have not yet been put on the market.

Is is true? It might be. I will follow it closely here, as I always do, and you and I can look at the monthly stats together. There is no sense in trying to sugar-coat anything. If you are selling and need to sell before the next year or so, then the sensible thing to do would be sell immediately, before this predicted wave comes. If you are buying, then the temptation will be to wait and see if this news manifests, and plummets prices yet again.

The first-time home buyer tax credit window is closing fast. In order to have a hope to get it, you would need to identify a foreclosure or a conventional sale in the next few days, where your either a) buying with cash, or b) have a fast-moving lender who can get you speedy financing. Forget short sales, they are out of the question if you hope to close by November 30th, and get that $8,000. There is a movement afoot to try and extend the deadline to include next year, and there is even a push to try and increase the credit to $15,000. Either one would be great.
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I've enjoyed a really tremendous week of music-- I saw three genius musicians last Sunday evening at Gusman: Bela Fleck, Edgar Meyer, and Zakir Hussain played some amazing music from their new project. It was a unique and unusual experience. My good friend Mike Cohen and his wife Iris joined us, and Mike said it was one of the top 10 live performances he had ever seen. Mike, who owns Musican's Discount Center in Cutler Bay, has been around music his whole life and is an outstanding drummer himself.
Then Tuesday night my wife and I enjoyed the Allman Brothers Band at Hard Rock Live in Hollywood. It was my eighth time seeing them, dating back to 1972. There are three original members left of the now 8-piece group. They were great.

This coming weekend is my daughter's birthday, and we are off to Orlando to spend a few days at our timeshare.

HAPPY HALLOWEEN TO ALL!!

..let's hope so, anyway. That's the last line in the old mariner's rhyme about the months of hurricane season: June too soon, July standby, August, beware you must, September remember, October all over. Of course, in the last decade, we've all learned that its not over in October by a long shot, right?

The September sales stats are out, and as usual, you can click on $ales By the Numbers (to the left) to go see the market data charts for Miami-Dade, Palmetto Bay, and Pinecrest. Those two municipalities had a down month in September, the first time in months that their pending sales had gone down and their inventory had inched up. Overall, though, the inventory of Miami-Dade County single family homes continued to fall, dropping below 9046 unsold properties, compared to 16,802 one year ago. Pending sales climbed for the 4th month, to 1,336, but closings, poisoned by short sales, dipped slightly for the second straight month.

Average sales prices were up for the 2nd straight month, to $334,000. That's the highest number in that category since December 2008.

Palmetto Bay's Village Homes and Condos, where I purchased at the beginning of the year, is seeing some interesting sales occurring. The 2 bedroom villas (half of a "twin home," or duplex) have sold briskly, and the last two that sold closed above asking price, and at prices we haven't seen in that area since last year.

Speaking of Palmetto Bay, I went to the Wine on Harvest Moon at the Deering Estate there last weekend, it was a fabulous event. If you've never been, make it a point to go next year, especially if you have a birthday, anniversary, or some other thing to celebrate. We enjoyed exemplary food and wines from several restaurants, wonderful live music (great job FIU school of music!), an auction, and a real nice collection of people, all in an awesome setting, by the bay.

More focus on Palmetto Bay's Franjo Triangle, as promised to come...there's a lot happening there and I want to dig a little deeper before I bring you the news here.