Ramesh Nyberg's Real Estate Blog

Contrary to popular belief, I have not gone completely underground. :) Just partially.
Life takes some interesting twists and turns at times, and right now I am navigating those twists and turns--all positive ones--with little braking. My high school Driver's Ed teacher, Jim Smith, comes to mind, his short rotund form in the passenger seat, calmly trying to hide his fear as we swept through the course. "We mash on the brake during turns.." he said in his slow Southern drawl. (See, I had been practicing driving since the age of 14, so the course almost put me to sleep) But I listened and obeyed--good thing, too: Smith ended up being my head coach in JV Football at Palmetto Senior High.

Ah, but once again I digress. Regardless of the practice you've had with twists and turns, you still have to attend to them carefully, lest you crash. The result has been a temporary re-prioritization of various activities, and this blog has suffered my attention because of it. I pop my head up today to say hello and let you know that I am very much still here.

In fact, another blog entry will follow pretty quickly, generously peppered with February's housing sale stats.

I can't really get into all the changes here--not yet. There will be a blog entry for that later on. Suffice it to say that I appreciate everyone's business, as usual, and I am very much at your service, as usual. In fact, I want to remind everyone that my interests in commercial real estate and business opportunities have increased, and I am open to any ventures you or your colleagues and friends my want to explore. Do call on me, because my resources there are great, and I am currently working several opportunities for my customers in that arena, from warehouses to strip shopping centers. So there's a hint, of sorts, of what's going on in my life.

Best to all--I'll be back here again soon.

All right, you'll simply have to forgive the New Orleans Saints reference here. I'm still a little bouyant after the guys with the "banana on their helmets" (as Adam Sandler described them) brought home the first-ever Vince Lombardi trophy home to the Big Easy. I could go on about this, but I know you who read my blog are not necessarily all football fans, and I'm a frustrated sports writer from way back, when I would write articles about my elementary school's fifth grade softball games, for a non-existent newspaper.

So the real question I am getting here is not about point spreads or final scores, it's about home values. Are prices stabilizing for real? Can I (should I) sell now? Where is the market going? What about this "second wave of foreclosures" we are hearing about?

Last to first: The second wave, from all I've been told, is a hypothesis rendered by many real estate soothsayers, who are pointing to the number of short sales out there right now. There are still neighborhoods in South Miami-Dade that are 50-60% short sale. The stats we get from our corporate headquarters, and from the county tax assessor's office, are saying that 48% of all single family homes in Miami-Dade County are upside down on their loans. So it is feasible that there is another wave of foreclosures, but this time they are forecast to be in the $300-500,000 price range.

Two interesting findings--foreclosure filings are down 7% since last year, and prices are still dropping. Nothing terribly surprising here. But we ARE seeing prices stabilize in some neighborhoods. Last night, I met with a couple who are looking to sell in Palmetto Bay. The market analysis I did for them in Spring of 2008 didn't look much different than the one I brought the meeting. If they are going to ask less, it won't be that much less.

The "should I sell" question is a personal one, and I always answer it with a question: How much do you need--or want--to sell? If you have a dream home waiting for you in Tennessee, overlooking the mountains, with the deer walking around in your back yard, and you want to wait until you get $20,000 more for your house, then all you've really done, in my estimation, is tell me that your peaceful retirement isn't worth more than $20,000 to you.
Peace, quiet, and a healthy heart and soul can't be measured in terms of money, in my opinion. So, if that's the scenario, sell. If you are just "testing" the market, and aren't really that motivated to move, don't.
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There is much more going on, and I will tighten up the time between posts (one month is just unforgivable, and you have my apologies) so that we can all get caught up. It's time to step out to that brisk 40-degree breeze (I'm not complaining, my sister called me from Minnesota yesterday, and they've had 10 inches of snow in 36 hours), and get to class.

Next post will be in 7 days or less, and have the latest market stats, more commentary about life, and probably no football.

So this morning I did something I've never done, at least here in South Florida. I went out to the car, and then went back inside to the kitchen, for a spatula.

To scrape the ice of the windshield. Yikes.

And as I type this, the arctic blast that visited us for the last four days is subsiding, and it's a beautiful, blue and sunny 52 degrees.

My website has sternly informed me that its been 23 days since I last updated this blog. Unacceptable. Sorry. I plead holidays, and a bunch of other stuff, but its still not acceptable. I also was waiting for Miami-Dade's statistics to be compiled for December, and finally we have them.

December trended back up after a dip in November, and the inventory in Miami-Dade continued to drop, down to 8,271 homes (single family) unsold. The Miami Herald called the November decline "surprising", when in fact there was nothing surprising about it at all. It happens every November, and we all predicted it. The county's sold price per square foot was up for the third straight month, to $156. Municipalities like Palmetto Bay and Pinecrest have leveled off the last three months. Very little has changed in terms of sales/month, and inventory. Cutler Bay, on the other hand, has seen an increase in inventory the last three months, and while sales bounced back in December to 37, it still has a ways to go before hitting that nice stride of the March to September '09 segment, during which it was averaging about 48 sales per month. Might buyers be leaning back to the more prestigious communities and better school districts? I think we need a couple of more months to tell. One positive for Cutler Bay: the list-to-sale ratio has gradually crept up to an impressive 98%.
In any case, all the new charts and stats will be posted by tomorrow (Tuesday, January 12th) afternoon.
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I took a long look at the possibility of going back to school for my Master's Degree, and spent some time seeing how it would work alongside my business plan. Then, I met with my assistant, and we worked out a new schedule. I'm happy to say that I am back taking classes, and it thus far, the layers of communication we have established have allowed me to keep the business flowing just as it was before. There might be minor adjustments to make, but so far, so good.
I didn't want to tackle college (after all, it's been 27 years since I took any classes!) if was going to effect my ability to provide superior service to my customers. With Jenifer's help, and by re-visiting the schedule and business agenda frequently, it is working, and I will continue to make it work.

I am more and more impressed with the integration of "smart" technology in automobiles, TVs, and well, everything. I just got the new AT&T U-Verse, and I have to say it's remarkable. The ability to record and watch from different rooms, the multi-view screens, the online news, stock, and sports information you can bring up on a sidebar...all very cool. Cars are getting smarter too. The OnStar service on our Saturn sends me an email once a month detailing what mechanically need/doesn't need attention.
The new Lexus, and I think, other vehicles now, have an automatic parallel parking module. You press a button, take your hands off the wheel, and the car parks itself. The new Ford Taurus has a cruise control function that automatically senses the car in front of you and adjusts your speed to keep a safe distance. 

There are "smart" homes now, too. High-tech appliances that need repair  automatically download repair patch files, and fix themselves. There are refrigerators that scan the bar codes on every item you put inside and take out, and at the end of the week or month, calculates what you need to replace, prepares a shopping list, and emails it to the grocery store. (I don't have such a grocery store, either) I haven't sold one of those homes as yet, but I'm looking forward to it. Then you go there and pick up your pre-purchased groceries. My father-in-law wouldn't care for this. He likes his trips to Publix as much as I like going to the stadium for my Dolphin game.
My son was showing me how the PS3 not only plays DVDs, but it can access your home network, and display shared photos, files, and movies. He and his buddy went online on the PS3 and actually downloaded game demos. You can play live against people from all over the world, too.

Speaking of smart, U.S. News and World Report just published their analysis of the nation's school systems, including the country's 100 "Gold Medal" schools. South Florida had five schools on the top 100 list: Design and Architecture High School in Miami ranked number 15; The Alexander W. Dreyfoos Jr. School of Arts (West Palm Beach) came in at number 57; Key Biscayne's Maritime and Science Tech High School ranked number 66; the New World School of the Arts in Miami was number 82, and Coral Reef Senior High (south Miami-Dade County) was number 95. Congratulations to those great schools, teachers, parents, and students!
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I want to thank all of you for reading this blog this year. I hope you will continue, and I hope you'll share it with your friends and family. Remember, I would love to hear your feedback on the blog content, the sales charts, anything you care to comment on.
I hope you have a Merry Christmas, Happy Hannukah, or whatever else you celebrate, as well as a great New Year. 2010 is full of promise!

I always contend that Palmetto Bay is the place to be. Probably because I live here. The November sales statistics show that Palmetto Bay was the only one of the trio that I track whose sales went up. While pending sales and closings dipped sharply for Pinecrest and for Miami-Dade overall, the Village of Parks (maybe that's why we are so positive here!) went from 12 sales in September, to 20 in October, and notched 25 sales in November. Nice! Maybe its the abundance of peacocks and other wildlife, too.

During my morning exercise walk the other day, I walked through a crowd of at least 15 peacocks, all jumbled up alongside the road at 77th avenue and about 181st street. Then, I went along the lagoon at the Palmetto Bay Village Center building and saw a crocodile sitting in the water. He is apparently a permanent resident, as I saw him this past Thursday, too.

The rest of the stats looked pleasantly predictable: the inventory of unsold homes in Miami-Dade continued to drop (hooray!) -- that's 14 consecutive months of decline --and we were at 8599 unsold homes for November. The drop in sales was expected, as shopping, travel, and other holiday matters take center stage.

Two big additions to the sales data page are coming! Because of sales activity and customer requests, I will add the Village of Cutler Bay, and I will spotlight Coral Gables and Coconut Grove as well. Cutler Bay is being added because that is where the majority of my 2008 sales were. The Grove is being added because a customer suggested it, and I think its an excellent place to spotlight because of its unique nature, and appeal to both investors and residents alike. This addition will actually take in all of the area that Coconut Grove sits, and in this blog we will narrow down the conversation to just Grove properties.
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Well, my tree is up--it went up just a few days after Thanksgiving, but I cheated: it's artificial. I had real trees for years, and after a while, I just couldn't equate paying $70 bucks for a real tree, dress and undress it, and then throw it away in January. So three years ago we got a tree that looks very real, with the lights already on it. Yes, I know, that pine smell is wonderful, and I DO actually miss trips to the tree lot, walking around in a "forest" and inhaling that scent. Maybe I'll just go visit one this year.

I met six really nice people last Sunday evening, but I kind of wish I had not.
We all met--literally--at the intersection of SW 136 St and Old Cutler Road, when the lady in front of me decided to take a left turn directly in front of an oncoming car. That car swerved, hit her, then hit me head on. I never really saw him coming, and I was only vaguely aware that she was turning off Old Cutler. And so that dark evening, just seconds after we showed my daughter the moon through the moonroof, headlights suddenly appeared directly in front of me.

There was no time to get out an "omigod". The collision was hellacious. There was that brief moment after the crash that I sat there, my head spinning, smelling the charge from the airbags, and hearing the hiss of fluids from the engine, wondering if this was the afterlife.
Amazingly, my wife and daughter and I were uninjured (unless you count my sore shoulder from the seatbelt and scrapes from the airbag). Even more amazing that none of the other people in the  other vehicles were hurt either.

I guess if you have to crash, do so right in your real estate farm area.

Every Thanksgiving from here on in there will be some reflection on that crash, not just because we survived it, but because Thanksgiving was truly horrific for another family.
Lisa Knight Mehrige, one of our Realtors, was murdered along with her twin sister and two other family members on Thanksgiving night, at a family gathering. Their brother was the killer, and as I write this is still at large.
Lisa was one of the nicest, sweetest people you'd ever want to work with, and her death has shaken our office deeply. She worked along with her mother, Carole.
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Business has been typically slow as most everyone turns their attention to the holidays.

More details to come after this weekend.

I'm not sure if I have a favorite month, or if its necessary to have one, but November ranks pretty high for me. Thanksgiving is my favorite holiday...We are in the real "crunch time" period of NFL football...and today, November 19th, is my first son's birthday. Happy 24th Birthday, Erik!

Well, you've seen it on the news, probably in the newspaper, and on the radio: the recession is ending, or at least close to being over. Recently the Miami Herald published an article quoting leading economists, including Standard and Poor's, whose spokesperson cited a still "fragile" banking industry while saying we are exiting the recession.

Radio personality and financial advisor Rick Edelman recently declared that the recession is ending, and that there is actually cause to be excited. Though we "might not see any improvement for months," the improvement is underway already, as evidenced in the stock market.

"The stock market," he explains, "anticipates the economy.  It began falling before we entered the recession, and it is beginning to recover before we exit the recession." Jobs, he said, do just the opposite: Unemployment lags behind the economy. Jobs are lost after the recession begins, and recover after the recession has ended. Edelman, if you have not heard him, is excellent at explaining how money works, and how financial events affect our daily lives. He can be heard on Saturdays from 11am to 1pm, on WIOD (610am).

This is traditionally a slow segment of the real estate year. Most people have turned their attention to the holidays, family visits, shopping, and travel. But don't rule it out entirely--there are still those who want to close deals before the end of the year, and early to mid-December can sometimes be surprisingly busy. I will let you know in a December blog how that is going ;)

I want to wish all of you a great Thanskgiving holiday. Despite the tough road we have all traveled this year, there is so much to be thankful for. One of the things I treasure is the readership of this blog, and the terrific people I meet in this career. Thank you for doing business with me!

The October stats are out, and not much has changed in terms of trends. The inventory in Miami-Dade continued to fall: we are now below 9,000 single family homes for sale-- wow! At this time last year, the big drop in inventory actually started. September '08 had 16,802 unsold, and the next month it dropped to 16,129. A year later, we've cut the inventory in half. The list-to-sale ratio has stayed pretty constant at 89%, and the average days on market is telling us the same story: it takes a little over a month to sell your home in Miami-Dade.

Palmetto Bay and Pinecrest continue to meander around but otherwise basically recovered from a poor showing in September. Interestingly, though, Palmetto Bay's inventory increased for the second straight month, bringing the number of unsold homes to 165. That's still a far cry from October 2008's number of 284.

The first-time buyer tax credit was extended (pending the President Obama's signature), and this can only be a positive. How much of an impact this will have on the overall housing market remains to be seen, but in the wake of a lot of negative forecasts about the housing market, we've got a count this as a victory. Realtors from all over the country signed on-line petitions prepared by the National Association of Realtors, and once President Obama signs it, we can expect to keep a lot of buyers warmed up. 

I'm happy to announce that you can now search the MLS here on this site. I hope you will use this often. You have a home here, where you can read the blog, check the market stats, and now, do your searching.    

It's worth mentioning that I also work in the commercial sector. If you are looking for something for your business, this is a tenant's market. It's an outstanding time to upsize! Call me and let's make your deal. Today's new opportunity: a storefront/office space in the Carriage House Hotel on Miami Beach, perfectly located on the lobby level, next door to a busy restaurant. It has a reception area, main office, loft workspace, and lots of storage space. Price: $1200/month. 

BOO! The reports coming out of some private research organizations are not good--they call for a 30% decrease in home values in the coming year, due to a new wave of short sales and foreclosures. The "shadow market", as it is being referred to, represents the hidden properties currently invisible to the real estate world, because they are either default mortgages waiting to go short sale, or short sales currently being absorbed by the bank in foreclosure judgements, which have not yet been put on the market.

Is is true? It might be. I will follow it closely here, as I always do, and you and I can look at the monthly stats together. There is no sense in trying to sugar-coat anything. If you are selling and need to sell before the next year or so, then the sensible thing to do would be sell immediately, before this predicted wave comes. If you are buying, then the temptation will be to wait and see if this news manifests, and plummets prices yet again.

The first-time home buyer tax credit window is closing fast. In order to have a hope to get it, you would need to identify a foreclosure or a conventional sale in the next few days, where your either a) buying with cash, or b) have a fast-moving lender who can get you speedy financing. Forget short sales, they are out of the question if you hope to close by November 30th, and get that $8,000. There is a movement afoot to try and extend the deadline to include next year, and there is even a push to try and increase the credit to $15,000. Either one would be great.
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I've enjoyed a really tremendous week of music-- I saw three genius musicians last Sunday evening at Gusman: Bela Fleck, Edgar Meyer, and Zakir Hussain played some amazing music from their new project. It was a unique and unusual experience. My good friend Mike Cohen and his wife Iris joined us, and Mike said it was one of the top 10 live performances he had ever seen. Mike, who owns Musican's Discount Center in Cutler Bay, has been around music his whole life and is an outstanding drummer himself.
Then Tuesday night my wife and I enjoyed the Allman Brothers Band at Hard Rock Live in Hollywood. It was my eighth time seeing them, dating back to 1972. There are three original members left of the now 8-piece group. They were great.

This coming weekend is my daughter's birthday, and we are off to Orlando to spend a few days at our timeshare.

HAPPY HALLOWEEN TO ALL!!

..let's hope so, anyway. That's the last line in the old mariner's rhyme about the months of hurricane season: June too soon, July standby, August, beware you must, September remember, October all over. Of course, in the last decade, we've all learned that its not over in October by a long shot, right?

The September sales stats are out, and as usual, you can click on $ales By the Numbers (to the left) to go see the market data charts for Miami-Dade, Palmetto Bay, and Pinecrest. Those two municipalities had a down month in September, the first time in months that their pending sales had gone down and their inventory had inched up. Overall, though, the inventory of Miami-Dade County single family homes continued to fall, dropping below 9046 unsold properties, compared to 16,802 one year ago. Pending sales climbed for the 4th month, to 1,336, but closings, poisoned by short sales, dipped slightly for the second straight month.

Average sales prices were up for the 2nd straight month, to $334,000. That's the highest number in that category since December 2008.

Palmetto Bay's Village Homes and Condos, where I purchased at the beginning of the year, is seeing some interesting sales occurring. The 2 bedroom villas (half of a "twin home," or duplex) have sold briskly, and the last two that sold closed above asking price, and at prices we haven't seen in that area since last year.

Speaking of Palmetto Bay, I went to the Wine on Harvest Moon at the Deering Estate there last weekend, it was a fabulous event. If you've never been, make it a point to go next year, especially if you have a birthday, anniversary, or some other thing to celebrate. We enjoyed exemplary food and wines from several restaurants, wonderful live music (great job FIU school of music!), an auction, and a real nice collection of people, all in an awesome setting, by the bay.

More focus on Palmetto Bay's Franjo Triangle, as promised to come...there's a lot happening there and I want to dig a little deeper before I bring you the news here.